Upcoming 2026 Movies That Could Bomb/Underperform at the Box Office

Upcoming 2026 Movies That Could Bomb/Underperform at the Box Office

We only have a few months left in 2026 which is crazy because it feels like 2026 just started. With that in mind, I am going to be looking at the remaining months of 2026 and predict which films I think will either bomb or underperform at the box office. Here we go!

• Digger (October 2nd, 2026): Of the movies on the list, this is the one that I am most looking forward to, and it is the one that I have the most confidence in being good. But with that said, there is a chance this movie underperforms or bombs at the box office. The big reason for that is because this movie has a reported budget for $150-$200 million. If that budget is real and that is what the film costs, then it is easily going to lose WB a lot of money. Tom Cruise is still a big movie star, and everybody knows him, but he is not a box office draw anymore. He was a box office draw when Top Gun: Maverick came out, but the last two Mission Impossible movies underperformed at the box office. Also, you watch the trailers for this movie, and it is a very silly and silly movie. It is why I am excited for the movie, but it is also a film that I can see being polarizing. If that is the case, and it is a movie that is not for everybody then 100% it could lose money. I will say what can elevate this movie’s box office is if this movie is able to ride the award season momentum and get a lot of buzz about this being the film that is going to win Tom Cruise his Oscar. We are just weeks away from seeing this movie and so I am very curious to see what the early reviews have to say about this film. 

• The Social Reckoning (October 9th, 2026): Another film that a lot of people are predicting to be a Best Picture contender this year. I did Best Picture predictions back in March and I had this in the #10 spot, and I said that I am skeptical about this film getting in. After seeing the trailers for the movie, I am decreasingly confident that this film will get in. And I am less confident about this film being super profitable. I cannot imagine this film is going to be super expensive, The Social Network from 16 years ago cost $40 million, so I would expect this film’s budget to be about the same. In the cast, the film only needs to make $100-$120 million to be profitable, which is not a super high price tag. I also do not see this film having a super big opening weekend, and if it can have great legs then maybe it will be profitable. I think the reviews for this film are really going to affect how good this movie does. There is a lot of skepticism about doing a sequel to The Social Network without David Fincher or Jesse Eisenberg involved. The response I have seen to the trailers on social media has not been super positive, so I do not know how much interest there is going to be in this movie.
  

• Street Fighter (October 16th, 2026): This is one that we have multiple trailers for now, and I am going to be honest, I do not think this movie looks good. Of the movies on the list, this is the one that I think has the highest chance of bombing and will lose the most money. The big reason for that is nobody my age loves or cares about Street Fighter. The last Street Fighter movie came out in 1994, 32 years ago and 10 years before I was born. I do not know anybody that’s ever played a Street Fighter game, I have never played a Street Fighter game. The problem with this movie is that nobody my age cares about this movie. I have not heard anybody my age shares any sort of excitement for this movie. The only generation that knows Street Fighter are the older generations, so it is only targeting two different quadrants of people and that is not enough for this movie to be profitable. On the low end, I think the film will cost $100 million, which means the film would only need to make $250-$300 to be profitable and that is a stretch. I look at what Mortal Kombat II did earlier this year, which is a more popular IP and that only made $130 million. There is a chance this film does not even make $100 million worldwide. 
  

• I Play Rocky (November 6th, 2026): This is one that a lot of people I know through social media are quite excited about. I do know somebody that has seen the movie, he was positive about the film and said it is a total crowd pleaser. For me, the trailer they put out did not really work for me. I am still interested and curious about this movie because the story of Rocky is interesting and I think could make for a good movie. I think the problem with I Play Rocky is like Street Fighter (2026) where younger audiences do not care about it. Younger audiences and people my age do not care about Rocky and yet alone, do not know the story of Rocky and why it would make for a compelling movie. I think older audiences and fans of the original Rocky films will be excited for the movie and see it, but I do not know how many people under the age of 35 will see this movie. This movie is premiering at TIFF later this week, which means the first reactions to the film will be released. I am very curious to see what the reviews for the movie say and how good it is. If the movie does get great reviews, then it could have good legs. 
  

• How to Rob a Bank (November 13th, 2026): This is one that was supposed to come out last week, but they delayed the film because they thought it would play well over the Thanksgiving weekend with the big crowd. With that said, I think pushing it back was a financial risk because there’s so much other competition from other films. Beyond that, the trailer we got for the film, while fun it looks a big generic. David Leitch makes these big slick action movies. I thought The Fall Guy from a few years back was good, but that film underperformed and that film had bigger movie stars with Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt coming off two Best Picture nominees. I think the problem with Leitch’s films is that despite making good movies, they have a generic quality to them, and they are not movies to make people go “I have to see this in theaters.” I am sure the movie will do good on streaming but in theaters I think this film could underperform at the box office. 
  

• Hexed (November 25th, 2026): The latest Disney animated movie that I talked about in yesterday’s blog post. My excitement for the film is not particularly high, I think some of that is due to me aging out of being the target audience and the marketing thus far has not hooked me enough to really raise my excitement. This is one that I really do not know how well it is going to do. Disney and Pixar animated films have been so hit or mess recently, that this could either be a hit or a box office bomb. The last two original animated films Disney put out, Strange World and Wish both bombed dramatically at the box office. You had Encanto that made $200 million, but that was during November 2021 and still was decently profitable. This is the kind of film whose box office depends on the box office. If the film gets negative reviews like Wish, then it could lose Disney a lot of money. But if the reviews are solid and people call it a good movie, then maybe it could make some money back and make more than what people are expecting it to make.

• Jumanji: Open World (December 25th, 2026): I have seen a few people predict Jumanji: Open World is going to make $1 billion and that is ridiculous. The chances of Jumanji: Open World making $1 billion are near zero, because I do not feel the excitement for this movie. I think there’s multiple reasons for why this movie is on the list. First up, it has been seven years since Jumanji: The Next Level. I do not know why it took seven years to get another one but here we are and that was a mistake. Second, Dwayne Johnson does not have the movie star stardom that he did back in 2019. I think over time and especially after Black Adam more people have grown tired of him. I do not know if him being in the movie is going to be why the movie could underperform, but it is certainly not going to elevate it. Third, it is coming out the weekend after Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Part III and the pre-ticket sales for those movies have been fantastic and record breaking, and that is going to dominate the Christmas box office going into January. I do not think Jumanji: Open World is going to make an impact at the box office and could underperform compared to the past films which both made over $800 million at the box office. This movie is going to make between $600-$650 million at the box office.