Can Spider-Man: Brand New Day Surpass No Way Home?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day is less than three weeks away and it is shaping up to be the biggest movie of the year thus far. There is so much excitement going into this movie because Spider-Man is a beloved character. With the film slowly itching its way to release, we now know what the film is tracking to do opening weekend. To nobody’s surprise, it is a substantial number. What does this mean for the film? Let us talk about it!
The Numbers: Spider-Man: Brand New Day as of right now is tracking for $220-$240 million domestic opening. Which will not only make it the biggest opening of the year so far, but it will also be the biggest opening of the decade since Spider-Man: No Way Home in December 2021 at $260 million. As a point of reference, if we look at the other Tom Holland led Spider-Man movies, Spider-Man: Homecoming opened to $117 million. Spider-Man: Far From Home is a little bit more complicated because that film opened on a Tuesday. So, its opening weekend was Tuesday to Sunday, not Friday to Sunday. But it had a $100 million plus opening, but it was bigger than what Homecoming opened to. Brand New Day would be the second biggest opening for a Tom Holland led Spider-Man movie, as well as the second biggest opening ever for a Spider-Man movie. That is the context for how this movie is tracking to open as of right now.
My Thoughts/Can It Surpass Spider-Man: No Way Home at the Box Office?
Overall, I am not too surprised that Brand New Day is tracking to have a fantastic domestic opening. Spider-Man is the most popular and beloved superhero that we have. This movie is coming off No Way Home which both critics and audiences love. All signs were pointing towards Brand New Day having. Fantastic opening weekend. Quick side note, before we dive deeper into the discussion. Tom Holland is going to have a great July, with The Odyssey already getting fantastic reviews and is of course going to be a big hit at the box office, plus you have Brand New Day that is easily going to crack $1 billion by sometime in August.
The question that a lot of people are debating on the internet is, will Brand New Day beat No Way Home at the box office? My gut reaction is to say that no, I do not think Brand New Day is going to beat No Way Home at the box office? The simple reason for that is No Way Home made $1.9 billion. The reason for that, the reason it became the highest grossing standalone superhero movie is because we had Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield returning and appearing in the film. If you were not there opening day or opening weekend, then I do not think you fully realize just how big of an event and deal that was. Audiences were clapping and cheering so much that you could not hear the next 15-20 seconds of the movie. The movie had fantastic legs because people wanted to experience it again on the big screen and they wanted to bring their friends so that way they could experience it repeatedly. Brand New Day I do not think is going to have that same level of rewatchability and the “I got to see it on the big screen again” mentality. I am sure the movie will be good, and I will want to watch it again. Hulk and Punisher being in the movie is not going to be the same box office draw that Tobey and Andrew are in terms of being in a Spider-Man movie.
The other thing that helped No Way Home is that it was Christmas released in 2021. It had January and February to have fantastic legs with no competition besides Scream (2022), which even then was not a big box office hit. 2021 and early 2022 did not have a lot of movies coming out because of COVID, so until The Batman came out in March 2022, Spider-Man: No Way Home was the big blockbuster to see.
Like I said, Spider-Man: Brand New Day could very easily make $1 billion, I think by the end of August it will make $1 billion. But I do not know if it could make $2 billion like No Way Home did. Spider-Man: Far From Home made $1.1 billion and you are Age of Ultron which made about $1.4 billion. As of right now, Brand New Day’s box office is going to be somewhere in between there, but close to Age of Ultron’s box office.
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