2026 Oscar WINNERS Predictions: Part 1

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2026 Oscar WINNERS Predictions: Part 1

In a few days we’re getting the 2026 Oscars. That means awards season is almost done (thank god, am I right?) That means I’m going to give you my final Oscar predictions in the final NINE categories left to talk about. Here we go!


BEST CASTING

  • Sinners
  • One Battle After Another
  • Marty Supreme
  • Hamnet
  • The Secret Agent 
    • My Thoughts: This is one that I thought maybe would’ve been a little bit of a race and debate this awards season. But I believe this to be one of Sinners’ awards too loose. The casting director, Francine Maisler seems to be beloved in the industry and has been in the industry for a long time. You look at the films she’s worked on over the past several years like 12 Years A Slave, Birdman, The Revenant, and Dune all of which probably would’ve been nominated if this was a category. Ultimately, I think what pushed Sinners to a victory was its big win at SAG a couple weeks back. The reaction from the audience when Sinners won was massive which I think solidifies Sinners taking this award home. 


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • One Battle After Another
  • Hamnet
  • Bugonia
  • Frankenstein
  • Train Dreams
    • My Thoughts: With One Battle After Another coming out, Paul Thomas Anderson has 14 Oscar nominations and no wins. This is finally going to be the ceremony where he’s getting an Oscar. Will he get three? We’ll find out Sunday night. But, Paul Thomas Anderson is winning at least one Oscar and it’s in adapted screenplay. This has been Paul Thomas Anderson’s award to lose ever since he won at Critics Choice in early January. I thought maybe One Battle After Another could lose in this category at BAFTA and Hamnet would win. But no, One Battle After Another got that win. One Battle After Another is easily taking best adapted screenplay. 


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • Sinners
  • Sentimental Value
  • Marty Supreme
  • It Was Just an Accident
  • Blue Moon
    • My Thoughts: If One Battle After Another is talking about the best adapted screenplay then I think Sinners is taking best original screenplay. Ryan Coogler deserves the Oscar and I was saying that ever since this movie came out. I think what’s helped Sinners beyond it getting multiple nominations and truly being a great screenplay is that it’s the most original of these films. Sentimental Value and Marty Supreme are really good movies with really good screenplays but Sinners is the most original and out there of these screenplays. 


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
  • Delroy Lindo (Sinners)
  • Stellen Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
  • Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)
  • Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another)
    • My Thoughts: This is an interesting one because the one I’ve felt the most confident in is Sean Penn in One Battle After Another, he’s great in the movie and totally deserving. He won BAFTA and SAG which does have a lot of voter overlap with the Oscars. So the safe and easy answer is Sean Penn for One Battle After Another. But the other two actors in the top three, Delroy Lindo and Stellen Skarsgård, I can also see winning here. For a while Skarsgård seemed like a front runner to win. But he lost at BAFTA and wasn’t even nominated at SAG, that’s a big deal. If he won the BAFTA and Golden Globe (to which he won the later), then I probably would’ve predicted him here. I also think there’s a world where Delroy Lindo wins. I said this a lot in my other Oscar predictions post but if the Academy really loves Sinners then it could win in some categories that we aren’t expecting. Lindo is a veteran that’s never been nominated for an Oscar. And they’ve been pushing that as a narrative to celebrate him. He gave a speech at the Critics Choice before Oscar nominations dropped, and then he gave a speech at SAG right in the middle of Oscar voting. I’m putting Delroy Lindo in my 2nd place spot. I still think Sean Penn takes it for One Battle After Another, but if one was to upset him it’s Delroy Lindo in Sinners. I wish I could have Skarsgård higher up on the list but I don’t feel the momentum and love for him. Jacob Elordi would get my vote in this category. If I had an Oscar ballot, he’s who I would predict to win. Benicio del Toro hasn’t won anything major all season, there was love for him back in December and January but that’s died down in the last several weeks. 


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Amy Madigan (Weapons)
  • Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)
  • Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
  • Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)
  • Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)
    • My Thoughts: The last couple of years, the best supporting actress has been pretty locked up. We knew that Da’Vine Joy Randolph is winning for The Holdovers going into the 2024 Oscars and that Zoe Saldaña was winning last year for Emilia Pérez. Supporting actress this year, I have no clue who is winning. As you can see, in my first place I'm going with Amy Madigan for Weapons. Amy Madigan just won at SAG which is a big deal and she has the career narrative that would make it a very cool win. She was my favorite performance of last year so I’m praying that she wins. But, Amy Madigan is at a huge disadvantage because she’s the sole nominee for Weapons. Lately, it’s extremely rare and hard for an actor to win an Oscar if they’re the lone nominee for a film. I believe the last one to do that was Julianne Moore for Still Alice back in 2015. That’s a long time ago for something like that to happen. But at the same time, Amy Madigan is giving a very showy performance that catches people’s attention. I still have her in my first place slot but I’m not super confident about it. Going into awards season, Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another was the front runner and favorite to win. This awards season, she’s only won the Golden Globe which puts her at a huge disadvantage. If she won BAFTA or SAG then I think she’s still in the race. I’m actually putting Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners in the second place slot. She won at BAFTA which is huge. Mikey Madison for Anora only won the BAFTA going into the Oscars and won the award. It’s not uncommon for an actor to win an Oscar just based on a BAFTA win. As I’ve already said multiple times, Sinners could win more awards then we’re expecting. Some people are predicting Wunmi Mosaku to win this award and if that happens, I wouldn’t be shocked. However, I don’t want to put all of my “Sinners is going to overperform” eggs into one basket. In supporting actress, there’s a three horse race to win this award and I don’t really know who it’s going to be. 


BEST ACTOR

  • Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
  • Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
  • Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
  • Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
  • Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)
    • My Thoughts: This is an interesting one because for weeks and months people were saying that this is Timothée Chalamet’s award to lose, he was sweeping early on in the awards season with taking Critics Choice and Golden Globe. But he lost at BAFTA and he lost at SAG, that’s a big deal. The BAFTA loss is a bit weird because he lost to an actor who wasn’t even nominated here. But as I've said earlier, there’s enough voting overlap between BAFTA, SAG, and the Oscars that him losing at those places is something we have to factor in. I think his campaign this entire awards season has hurt him. I think he’s campaigning too much and rubbing people the wrong way. His recent comments about the opera and ballot don’t affect OScar voting as those were released after Oscar voting had ended. But he’s vulnerable at the Oscars, so much so that I don’t have him winning. I’m putting Michael B. Jordan in that top spot for Sinners. If you watch his SAG acceptance speech, the audience burst into applause hearing his name. Had Chalamet won the award, the reaction wouldn’t have been as big. I think Michael B. Jordan is taking this award home. Now, is Chalamet completely out of it? No. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins. But the fact that the love and momentum for Chalamet has died down means that he’s vulnerable and he’s not a lock. Moura, DiCaprio, and Hawke, I don’t see any of those people winning.  


BEST ACTRESS

  • Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
  • Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)
  • Renate Reinsive (Sentimental Value)
  • Emma Stone (Bugonia)
  • Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue)
    •  My Thoughts: There’s not much to talk about here. Jessie Buckley is winning this award, there’s not doubt about it. Next! 


BEST DIRECTOR

  • Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
  • Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
  • Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
  • Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)
  • Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)
    • My Thoughts: If Paul Thomas Anderson is going to win a second Oscar it’s going to be in this category. One Battle After Another has a great shot of winning best picture, it’s the clear front runner but it’s not a lock. Paul Thomas Anderson in best director is a lock. I would want Ryan Coogler to win and take this home, maybe if Sinners was released in a different year it could win. But Paul Thomas Anderson is winning this award and there’s doubt in my mind about that. 


BEST PICTURE

  • One Battle After Another
  • Sinners
  • Hamnet
  • Sentimental Value
  • Marty Supreme
  • Frankenstein
  • The Secret Agent
  • F1
  • Train Dreams 
  • Bugonia
    • My Thoughts: Now, this is an interesting one because we have a race in Best Picture. One Battle After Another vs Sinners, that’s the race to talk about here. One of them is winning, who is it? I’m still predicting One Battle After Another, it’s won the most top prizes this award season. The only major award it lost to Sinners was best cast ensemble at SAG. I’m still going with One Battle After Another to win here. However, my mind keeps on going back to SAG and seeing the crowd’s reaction to Sinners winning. There’s love and passion for Sinners in this industry. I want Sinners to win best picture, that’s my favorite of these nominees. One Battle After Another is great too, but I think Sinners would be so cool. Some people are predicting Sinners to win and they might be right. 

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