The 2026 BAFTA Awards Were Madness! What Does it Mean for The Oscars?
Yesterday was the 2026 BAFTA Awards, we only have two more major award ceremonies left in awards season. The BAFTA Awards were absolutely madness and didn’t help predict the Oscars at all (for most categories).
THE ACTING CATEGORIES
BEST ACTOR: Most everybody thought that Timothée Chalamet was going to take this award home. He won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice, and people were saying that this was Timothée’s year to finally win an Oscar. Did Timothée win at BAFTA, no? He lost to Robert Aramayo for I Swear. You probably haven’t heard or seen I Swear, that’s ok because I hadn’t either until this nomination. This might be the most shocking award at the event because he’s not nominated for the Oscar. He is a British star so that definitely helped him out here. Despite this, it’s not common for a British star to win an award like this. Especially since the other nominees in the category have shown up at least two other award shows. What’s funny about this, it hasn’t gotten a US release yet. Nobody in the United States has seen this movie. But I believe it’s getting a release this year so it’ll qualify for the 2027 Oscars. I don’t know if I Swear is going to be a contender at the Oscars, but it’s fascinating. But the bigger question here is, what does it mean for the Oscars? Honestly, I don’t know. I’ve seen some people say that Chalamet is in trouble at the Oscars. I’ve seen some people say that since Aramayo isn’t nominated at the Oscars that it doesn’t affect it at all. I think this does hurt Chalamet in a big way. BAFTA is a big indicator as to who wins the Oscar. Last year, Mikey Madison from Anora won the Oscar. The only precursor she had was BAFTA. Had DiCaprio, Hawke, or Jordan won here, then it would be a race to see who wins best actor. The fact that Chalamet lost the BAFTA is a big deal. We have the SAG awards next weekend (I’m still not calling them the Actors Awards). Since Chalamet won last year for A Complete Unknown, I don’t know if I’m predicting him to win there. Which means that Chalamet would only have a Golden Globe and Critics Choice, which could very much hurt Chalamet. If Chalamet loses at SAG then I think he’s in big trouble. If he wins, then I think he’s still winning. We’ll see what happens. Maybe this is Chalamet's time to win an Oscar.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS & ACTOR: I wanted to clump these two together because this means a lot for the Oscars. The supporting actress went to Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners and the supporting actor went to Sean Penn for One Battle After Another. What’s fascinating about these wins is that it gives no help as to whose winning the Oscar. Because Critics Choice, Golden Globe, and BAFTA have given the award to somebody different. Which means if either Amy Madigan, Teyana Taylor, or Wunmi Mosaku wins at SAG then they’re the front runner for the Oscar in supporting actress. If Jacob Elordi or Sean Penn wins at SAG then they’re the front runners for the Oscar in supporting actor. I think who this hurts the most is Stellan Skarsgard, this was his time to secure that victory up. He’s nominated at SAG which means he’s going into the Oscars with only a Golden Globe and that’s rare for somebody to win. For supporting actor, what would cause chaos is if Benicio del Toro or Paul Mescal wins at SAG. If he wins, I’d have no clue who to predict at the Oscars. If something similar happens to a supporting actress then I’d have no clue who to predict. I think Amy Madigan, Wunmi Mosaku, or Teyana Taylor wins at SAG because those three are also nominated at the Oscars. If Ariana Grande or Odessa A’zion wins at SAG then it’s going to cause even more chaos. I sort of love that there’s no front runner at the Oscars in these categories. Because the last two years the supporting categories were locked through and through. By the time we got to the Oscars we knew that Kieran Culkin was a supporting actor and Zoe Saldana was a supporting actress. I hope that either Benicio or Paul wins as a supporting actor at SAG just to cause even more chaos. Likewise, if Grande or A’zion wins at SAG for supporting actress, I don’t know who’d I predict to win at the Oscars.
THE LOCKS
BEST PICTURE/DIRECTOR/ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Moving away from the more chaotic categories to the easier categories. Paul Thomas Anderson took home for THREE BAFTA awards with picture, director, and adapted screenplay. This is Paul Thomas Anderson’s year to win all of the awards. For a bit I was saying that I wasn’t sure if One Battle After Another would win best picture, but I thought that PTA would win director and screenplay. I think One Battle After Another winning at BAFTA locked his victory up. I thought that Hamnet had a shot to win at BAFTA, I’m sure it was the runner up. Had Hamnet won at BAFTA then it’s a bit more of a race, but even then I’d still be predicting One Battle After Another to win the big prize.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: I’m very happy that Ryan Coogler won this award at BAFTA. I believe he was the first black man to win this award at BAFTA which is a huge accomplishment. I believe Sinners is winning more Oscars but the one I feel most confident in is this. I think it wins more then just screenplay, but this is the one that I have the most confidence in. I thought maybe Sentimental Value could pull and upset here, but nope Sinners won.
BEST ACTRESS: This is the only acting category that I think is a lock. Which is a bit funny because the last couple of years the best actress has been a race. In 2023 it was Cate Blanchett vs Michelle Yeoh, 2024 was Lily Gladstone vs Emma Stone, and 2025 was Mikey Madison vs Demi Moore. This is Jessie Buckley’s award to loose, I don’t see anybody loosing to her. If somebody was to beat her at SAG next weekend, I’d still predict her to win the Oscar. Jessie Buckley gave one of the best performances of the year. So if she wins the Oscar, I’m not going to complain about that at all.
Comments