2026 SAG Nominations Predictions

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2026 SAG Nominations Predictions

Next week we are getting nominations for the 2026 SAG Awards. This is one of the big award shows for figuring out the front runners for the Oscars in the acting categories. 


STUNT ENSEMBLE

  • Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning
  • F1
  • Superman
  • Sinners
  • Avatar: Fire and Ash 
    • Honorable Mentions
      • Wicked: For Good
      • One Battle After Another 
      • Ballerina: From the World of John Wick 
  • My Thoughts: We’re going to kick things off not talking about the acting categories but the stunt category. In first place I have Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning. I don’t want to get ahead of myself but I think this is the winner. SAG loves Tom Cruise and despite this movie not getting the best reviews, the stunts in the film are still fantastic and jaw dropping. F1 is the runner up, it’s using similar technology to what Joseph Kosinski used for Top Gun: Maverick and that film won at SAG a few years back. Those two I think are locks and are 100% getting in. I would be shocked if either one of those missed. 3-5 I could see these movies getting in and I could see some of them NOT getting in. In third place I have Sinners, I think that film is going to be very popular at SAG and there’s a lot of action that required stunts so it’s in my third. Fourth place I have Superman, they normally nominate a comic book movie. Superman seems to be one that the awards shows are recognizing the most. I can see a world where Superman doesn’t get in. I wish Thunderbolts* was more in this conversation. I think that film deserves a spot here. In fifth place, I have Avatar: Fire and Ash. This movie hasn’t been doing great this awards season but I think it’s entirely possible that Fire and Ash gets in here. Both of the previous films got nominated here and it just makes sense that it’ll be nominated here. One Battle After Another is one that a lot of people are putting in the top 5 likely for the car chase in the third act. For a while, I had this movie in the top 5. I’ll talk more about why it’s an honorable mention later on. 


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
  • Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another)
  • Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
  • Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly)
  • Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)
    • HONORABLE MENTIONS
      • Paul Mescal (Hamnet)
      • Delroy Lindo (Sinners)
      • Jonathan Bailey (Wicked: For Good)
  • My Thoughts: This is an interesting one because I think Penn, del Toro, and Skarsgård are all locks for this category. As of now, without having Critics Choice and Golden Globes I don’t know who’s going to win. As we get closer I’m sure I’ll have a better understanding. Just because I have Penn in first doesn’t really mean anything because the order of these actors can change. The fourth and fifth spot is where things get interesting. In the fourth spot I have Adam Sandler. I think Sandler gets in here, I think SAG is going to love Jay Kelly. We’ll talk about that later. Sandler has a reputation of being one of the nicest people in Hollywood, I think that’ll help him. The fifth spot is a bit tricky for me, I think this is a race between Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein and Paul Mescal for Hamnet. I think Mescal is more of a lock for the Oscar, I think he’s getting in. At SAG I can see him missing this in this category. In general, I can see Hamnet being this year’s The Brutalist. What I mean by that is The Brutalist was a film that got a ton of nominations last year but didn’t do great at SAG, Adrien Brody only got in at SAG. When it comes to Hamnet, I can see Jessie Buckley only getting in. I wouldn’t be shocked if Mescal gets in, I just don’t see it happening. My second honorable mention is Delroy Lindo from Sinners. I’ve heard his name been thrown out here a good bit but he has the career narrative. He’s a veteran actor and he’s been around a long time and has never gotten awards recognition. Because of that and the award shows loving narratives I think there’s a chance Lindo gets in. The other honorable mention here is Jonathan Bailey. To be clear, I don’t really believe that he gets in. I have him here because he got in for the first film and I think he has to be mentioned here. 


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Amy Madigan (Weapons)
  • Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good)
  • Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
  • Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)
  • Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine)
    • HONORABLE MENTIONS
      • Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme)
      • Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)
      • Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)
  • My Thoughts: Kind of like supporting actors, I really have no idea who’s going to win here. Therefore, I don’t know whose my #1 to be nominated in supporting actress. I think the winner is either going to be Amy Madigan, Ariana Grande, or Teyana Taylor. Which one of those is going to win? I have no idea. I think Amy Madigan gets in, she has the narrative of not being nominated for any major awards in 40 years. She seems to be well liked by the community, I don’t feel like there’s any negative discourse surrounding her. Weapons are well liked so all around I think Madigan is getting in. I have Ariana Grande is my second spot, some people are going with Teyana Taylor at #2. Maybe I should too because One Battle After Another is much stronger in the awards conversations then Wicked: For Good is. But what I’ve heard some people talking about is that because there’s not a clear front runner at this moment people might vote for Ariana Grande because they’re disappointed she didn’t win anything last year. I don’t think that’s a good reason to vote for somebody, you should vote for the best performance regardless of who it is. I think Grande gets in over Taylor, I still think Taylor gets in but I feel more confident in Grande. In my fourth spot I have Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value. I think she's a familiar face in the industry. She’s been in a lot of great projects over the years. This seems to be her time, I think the industry is going to acknowledge that with nominating her here. This is where things get interesting. For a while I had Gwyneth Paltrow in my 5th spot. She’s of course a well acclaimed actress that hasn’t acted in 6 years and hasn’t been in awards conversation in almost 30 years with Shakespeare in Love. It just felt like there’s a chance that Paltrow could get in. Recently, my gut has been telling me, Emily Blunt for The Smashing Machine. The fact that she got the Golden Globe nomination shocked me. SAG loves Blunt. She was nominated for Oppenheimer a few years back. And she was a double nominee at the 2019 SAG Awards with Mary Poppins Returns and A Quiet Place and she won for A Quiet Place. As crazy as it sounds, I think Blunt gets in at SAG. I don’t think she gets the Oscar nomination, I think Blunt’s award season ends with SAG. 


BEST ACTOR

  • Timothée Chalamet (Marty Suprême)
  • Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
  • Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)
  • Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
  • George Clooney (Jay Kelly)
    • HONORABLE MENTIONS
      • Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine)
      • Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere)
  • My Thoughts: This is one I feel pretty good about. People are saying that the best actor race is going to be between Chalamet and DiCaprio. Those two are the ones that people are talking about the most. Therefore, I have those two in my top two spots. Recently, there’s been a lot of conversation recently about Ethan Hawke maybe being the underdog. Where a lot of the conversations are about Chalamet and DiCaprio but maybe Hawke can come in as this underdog. I think he’s getting the Oscar nomination, this’ll be his fifth nomination. I think he does have that narrative of it’s fifth nomination, he’s a great actor and he should be awarded for something in his career, maybe Blue Moon will be that project. We’ll talk about this closer to the SAG Awards but I’m the order that I’m putting them as to whose most likely to be nominated isn’t the order that I think they’re going to win. Fourth spot I have Michael B. Jordan for Sinners. I have seen a little bit of conversations recently but how Michael B. Jordan being another Margot Robbie in a Barbie situation. He gets in everywhere but misses the Oscar nomination. I don’t think that’s going to happen, I think Jordan is in. The reason why I don’t have him higher is because I don’t see Jordan winning. I think the top three all have a good chance of winning, Jordan could I just don’t see that happening. That fifth spot is really where I’m confused. I have George Clooney for Jay Kelly. I think Clooney gets in here. As I’ve mentioned several times here, he’s beloved by the acting community and he hasn’t been in the awards conversation in like 15 years. He’s playing an actor, Jay Kelly seems to be an industry favorite. Some people might think that since I put Emily Blunt in for The Smashing Machine that I should also put The Rock in for The Smashing Machine. I debated putting him in there over Clooney. I really did think about it. But my gut is telling me that Clooney has to get in. Because I think Jay Kelly is getting another nomination at SAG. Because of that, I felt like I hadn’t put Clooney in. I would love it if The Rock got in here, he’s deserving of an Oscar nomination, 100%. I have him in my 6th place spot, I can see a world where he gets in. But once again like Blunt, I think SAG is the end of the line for him. I also have Jeremy Allen White for Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere. I don’t think this happens, the movie isn’t beloved as much I think they were hoping for. But Jeremy Allen White had massive success at SAG with The Bear, they love him so I could see that influencing SAG voters to vote him in here. 


BEST ACTRESS

  • Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
  • Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)
  • Emma Stone (Bugonia)
  • Renate Reinsive (Sentimental Value)
  • Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good)
    • HONORABLE MENTIONS
      • Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue)
      • Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another)
      • Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee)
  • My Thoughts: Once again, I think the top three on the list are locks. I think Buckley, Byrne, and Stone are getting in. Buckley is the clear Oscar favorite at the moment. Even if Hamnet doesn’t get into the ensemble (which I think is possible), I think she wins. Byrne has been getting a lot of talk and been doing very well in critics groups. She has been winning in a lot of smaller award shows, she’s another talent that hasn’t gotten this level of awards recognition before. Stone is once again loved by the SAG community and voters. Those three I feel pretty confident in that they’re getting in. In my fourth spot and this is where things get a bit interesting I have Renate Reinsive for Sentimental Value. This is an interesting one because SAG doesn’t normally acknowledge foreign performances and Sentimental Value is a foreign film. But I just feel that Sentimental Value is a strong enough film with voters that Reinsive gets in. At the same time, I see a world where Reinsive doesn’t get in. But as of now, I think she gets in. Like most of these, that fifth place spot is really tricky. I’ve seen some people put Chase Infiniti for One Battle After Another while others put Amanda Seyfried for The Testament of Ann Lee. I’m putting Cynthia Erivo for Wicked: For Good in that fifth place spot. For the Oscar, I think Cynthia is not the edge. As of now I don’t think she gets in. I think SAG is going to be an indicator for whether or not she gets the Oscar. If Erivo misses SAG then she’s not getting the Oscar. However, if Erivo gets into SAG then I think her chances are stronger. I have her in that fifth place spot, even though I fully acknowledge she might not get in. A lot of people are probably going to be confused as to why I don’t have Chase Infiniti in the top 5 or the first honorable mention. The reason why I don’t have her is because in the past SAG normally didn’t mean performances by new actresses. This is her feature film debut and SAG doesn’t acknowledge those performances very often. The other thing is that I think the other performances, DiCaprio, Taylor, del Toro, and Penn are all locks. I don’t see SAG nominating One Battle After Another for five different performances + ensemble. That’s why I have an honorable mention for a stunt. I don’t think One Battle After Another gets 7 SAG nominations, that's a lot and if other iconic films can’t do that, then I don’t think this movie does it. For my first runner up I have Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue. Like Blunt and Johnson, I don’t think Hudson gets the Oscar. But Song Sung Blue seems like the type of movie that SAG would like and in particular would love Hudson in it. She hasn’t gotten this level of awards recognition in 26 years since Almost Famous came out. If were to replace Erivo in the top 5, I think it’s Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue. 


BEST ENSEMBLE

  • Sinners
  • One Battle After Another 
  • Sentimental Value
  • Jay Kelly
  • Marty Supreme
    • HONORABLE MENTIONS
      • Wicked: For Good
      • Hamnet
      • Frankenstein
      • A House of Dynamite 
  • My Thoughts: The SAG’s version of Best Picture. In my first place spot I have Sinners, as of right now I think Sinners wins Best Ensemble. I think it does so I feel like I have to put it at #1. The runner up is One Battle After Another, if a movie was to give Sinners a run of its money it’s this movie. Those two are locks for getting in, I would be shocked if either one of those misses. In third place, I have Sentimental Value. The reason for that is because I think it gets three acting nominations. Therefore, it seems silly that I wouldn’t at least mention Sentimental Value in here. Maybe this is too high to place it, but Jay Kelly is in the fourth place spot. I think even if Clooney and Sandler miss, I think Jay Kelly still gets in. It’s a movie filled with movie stars playing people in Hollywood, it seems like the type of film that Hollywood and SAG are going to love. I have Marty Supreme in my fifth place spot, some people are having this movie higher. For me, I think why Marty Supreme could miss is because the buzz is so focused around Timothée Chalamet and not the ensemble. But at the same time, every member of the ensemble has a memorable role in this film. I think there’s a very strong chance that Marty Supreme gets in, but I can also easily see a world where it misses. The honorable mentions, especially the first three with Wicked: For Good, Hamnet, and Frankenstein I think have an equally good chance of getting in and missing. I can easily see a world where one of them gets in, I can also see where all of them miss. I have Wicked: For Good as my first honorable mention simply because I think it has a good chance of getting two performances in while the other two only have one performance likely getting in. My last honorable mention is A House of Dynamite. To be clear, I think the chances of this film getting in is very small. But it’s a big ensemble filled with familiar faces and actors that people enjoy, I felt like I have to mention it. 


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