10 Failed Oscar Bait Movies of 2025

10 Failed Oscar Bait Movies of 2025

The Oscar nominations are here and several of the films that people were predicting to be nominated were nominated. But every year there’s a handful of films that felt like they were sure things at the Oscars, but aren’t. Here are 10 movies that are considered to be failed Oscar bait films. 

NOTE: In order to qualify for this list, the film needed to have earned two or less Oscar nominations. Some of the movies that I have on here, did get nominated for Oscars but didn’t get the amount that people might’ve thought earlier on in the year. 

• Avatar: Fire and Ash: Like I said, I am counting movies that were nominated at the Oscars but received less than expected. The only Oscar nomination that was a lock going into 2025 was that Avatar: Fire and Ash was going to be nominated for best visual effects. We knew that was going to happen before anybody saw the film. The previous films also did very well in other Oscar categories like picture, sound, cinematography, and more. Pretty early on before the movie was released globally I knew the movie was done. It didn’t get a picture at Critics Choice or Golden Globes, award shows where the previous films both shined in. I believe James Cameron won best director at the 2010 Golden Globes for the original Avatar. I thought this movie would get best picture, visual effects, and two or three movie technical nominations. It got visual effects and it also got costume design. Avatar: Fire and Ash getting costume design might be the most random Oscar nomination that I can remember. Especially when it got in over Wicked: For Good where the previous film won best costume design at the Oscars. That’s just crazy to me and I don’t get it. The film only got two nominations and most people were thinking it would get five or six nominations. The film wasn’t as good as it needed to be, so it just ended up underperforming at the Oscars. 

• A House of Dynamite: This is one that kept on getting shortlisted at the Oscars and many other award shows. But at the end of the day, it ended up getting nothing. This is one that I didn’t really know about until the first trailer dropped. This is a political thriller from Kathryn Bigelow released on Netflix in October. That seemed like an easy film to predict in the best picture. Bigelow has Oscars making films in this genre. She was the first ever woman to win an Oscar for directing in 2010 with The Hurt Locker (she actually beat her ex-husband James Cameron there). It has a star studded cast with Rebecca Ferguson, Idris Elba, Jared Harris, Anthony Ramos, Greta Lee, Jason Clarke, Willia Fitzgerald, and many others. Those aren’t names that you normally see at the Oscars but it’s a star studded cast filled with familiar actors, with a great director, and interesting source material. You put those pieces together and the film seemed like a sure bet. The film was pretty polarizing and disappointed everybody. It’s a film that doesn’t really have an ending; it sort of just ends at one point in time. I also do remember hearing that maybe Idris Elba could finally earn an Oscar nomination, that pretty quickly was clear that it wasn’t happening. He’s good in the movie but he’s not doing anything that should earn a nomination. 

• Is This Thing On?: The third film directed by Bradley Cooper, this time starring Will Arnett and Laura Dern. Bradley Cooper is of course an acclaimed actor getting multiple Oscar nominations for his performance. But his previous directed films, A Star is Born and Maestro both got in at the Oscars in best picture and multiple other categories. So naturally, Is This Thing On? seemed like a film that was likely to get Oscar nominations. Laura Dern is an Oscar favorite, she’s earned multiple nominations and won for Marriage Story several years back. This movie didn’t show up anywhere at the Oscars or any awards show. The movie got great reviews, it seems like generally people are enjoying this film more than Maestro. I don’t know if I have a good reason as to why this movie didn’t show up anywhere. It got such a limited release in December and it didn’t go nationwide until January. So I don’t think enough people saw it. It’s a quieter film, it’s not a big flashy film like One Battle After Another or Sinners. So I think those are some of the big reasons as to why it didn’t make the Oscar nominations. 

• Jay Kelly: This might be the ultimate failed Oscar bait film of 2025. Going into the year I was sure that Jay Kelly was going to get a best picture nomination, director, screenplay, and maybe even a few acting nominations. Noah Baumbach is an acclaimed director who has gotten nominations in the past. It dropped on Netflix in December which is a prime release date for an awards contender film like this. This film wasn’t showing up at the places that it needed to in order to be nominated. It got two nominations at Golden Globes, it got several at Critics Choice, nothing at PGA, DGA, or WGA, and nothing at SAG. This film is about Hollywood and movie stars, it has two actors in the lead, George Clooney and Adam Sandler that have a good reputation and Hollywood and got zero nominations at the Oscars. If you would’ve told me this earlier in the year I would’ve called you crazy. I really liked the movie, I thought it was pretty good. A lot of people didn’t really care for this movie. In terms of quality, I’m not as surprised it didn’t get nominated a whole lot. But in terms of the star power, talent, and subject matter yah I’m shocked it’s not getting anything at the Oscars. 

• Nuremberg: It qualified to be on the list and on paper everything about it seemed like a film that should’ve gotten Oscar nominations. This is the plot description on IMDB, “A WWII psychiatrist evaluates Nazi leaders before the Nuremberg trials, frowning increasingly obsessed with understanding evil as he forms a disturbing bond with Hermann Göring.” That sounds like a film that’s ripe with Oscar nominations. It stars two Oscars winners, Russell Crowe and Rami Malek. There’s a great supporting cast with Michael Shannon, John Slattery, Richard E. Grant, and Colin Hanks. You have Crowe giving this transformative performance with prosthetics, those performances seem to be Oscar friendly. Brendan Fraser won an Oscar for that type of performance in 2023 for The Whale. It got shortlisted for many BAFTA categories, and those nominations drop tomorrow so maybe we’ll see if it gets nominated there. The only place I ever thought the film had a chance was Russell Crowe at the Golden Globes in best actor drama. Besides that I knew the film wasn’t really showing up anywhere. The film has a 72% on Rotten Tomatoes, that’s not terrible but most best picture nominees have better scores. 

• The Smashing Machine: This is the only other film on the list, after Avatar: Fire and Ash that got at least one nomination at the Oscars. This is one that going into the year seemed like a sure bet would get some Oscar love. It’s from Benny Safdie who has made a lot of prestigious films over the years. It’s a biopic with a transformative performance by Dwayne Johnson, I thought it would get a couple of nominations. I thought that Dwayne Johnson would get an Oscar nomination. It seemed like an Oscar thing to do, give an actor like him the nomination. After the film premiered at Venice it got fantastic reviews and it seemed like more of a lock that he would get the nomination. The film came out and bombed HARD at the box office. This was the worst opening ever for one of The Rock’s films. After that I think a lot of us went “well that nomination isn’t happening.” He only showed up at the Golden Globes, I thought he had a chance at SAG, but nothing. Going into Oscar nominations morning, the only nomination it got was best makeup and hairstyling. To be fair, it’s very deserving of that nomination so I’m not mad about it. But I do think Dwayne Johnson was worthy of a nomination. 

• Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere: Most of the time, biopics are safe bets with the Oscars. From Bohemian Rhapsody to Elvis to A Complete Unknown, biopics get several nominations including a nomination for the lead actor. Bruce Springsteen finally got a biopic in 2025 and it felt like it would be another Oscar favorite, but it wasn’t. I thought that at the very least Jeremy Allen White would show up at many places, but he only showed up at the Golden Globes. The film did get shortlisted for best sound at the Oscars but that’s it. The thing that surprised me about the film was that it was a bit more polarizing with a lot of people not really caring for it. I heard those reviews going into the film and I dug it. It wasn’t one of my favorite movies of the year but I thought it was pretty good and did a number of things that surprised me about Springsteen’s story and what he went through. The supporting cast had a number of great performances that I thought were deserving of more conversations. Biopics are easy wins for the Oscars and Springsteen: Delivered Me from Nowhere seemed like one that would see a few nominations. Similar to The Smashing Machine, I think this film had the same issue with it bombing hard at the box office when it came out. 

• The Testament of Ann Lee: Early on in the awards season, this film seemed like a sure bit to get a few nominations here and there. It seemed like for a while Amanda Seyfried would be one of the actresses to be nominated everywhere. She was getting a lot of praise for her performance, the film released in December and it was picked up by Searchlight Pictures. Searchlight normally does a pretty good job at getting their movies out there for the awards voters to see it, but they fumbled the ball when it came to The Testament of Ann Lee. Nobody went to go see this movie and after the Critics Choice awards, I don’t think it showed up anywhere. It’s weird that Searchlight didn’t do more with it because they normally do a pretty job at getting their movies out there for awards season. They picked up Poor Things a few years back, that film got ultimate nominations and won multiple Oscars including Emma Stone for best actress. It’s also from the filmmakers behind The Brutalist which was a very popular film with the Oscars last year and if they used that more in the marketing it could’ve gotten some nominations. I feel like there were multiple ways to get The Testament of Ann Lee nominated, but for whatever they didn’t. 

• Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery: It always surprises me that the Knives Out films aren’t bigger plays at the Oscars and other award shows. All of them are great, all of them made it into my top 10 of the years they came out. It seems like people really enjoy them and think they’re really good movies. Between this film and Avatar: Fire and Ash, it became clear that maybe the Oscars don’t love third films in franchises. That kind of makes me nervous about Dune: Part III next year. Both of the previous films got into the screenplay categories, neither film won but both were nominated. I thought that at the very least Wake Up Dead Man would get into the adapted screenplay category at the Oscars. Pretty quickly, this film was dead with almost no chance of getting in. When the film or Daniel Craig didn’t show up at the Golden Globes in the musical or comedy categories I knew the film was in trouble. The film didn’t get any nominations at Critics Choice, despite the previous two getting a couple. All around, this film flopped hard all awards seasons. With the Oscar nominations dropped last Thursday, I knew the chance wasn’t high but I was thinking that maybe Wake Up Dead Man could slide in there. It’s a shame, I really dug the film, it’s one of my favorite films of 2025 but it happens. 

• Wicked: For Good: This is one that I’m shocked didn’t get anything at the Oscars. Because it showed up at all of the major award shows. It got multiple Critics Choice nominations including best picture, Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande were nominated at the Golden Globes, and Grande got in at SAG. We all knew that the film wasn’t getting best picture and Erivo wasn’t getting in. But I still had it getting five nominations, some people only had four because they weren’t predicting Grande. I still had Grande in, my gut was telling me that she was getting in, she didn’t. The most surprising ones were the fact that it missed costume, production, makeup, and original song. The fact that Avatar: Fire and Ash got into costume design over Wicked: For Good is crazy to me. I know One Battle After Another is the Oscar favorite but it shouldn’t have gotten production design. The makeup for the Scarecrow and Tin Man was very impressive that it deserved a nomination. Recently there’s been reports about Erivo and Grande’s relationship affecting the nominations, is that true? I don’t know, but separate the art from the artist, Wicked: For Good wasn’t great but it was deserving of a few nominations.