2026 Best Picture Predictions
We’re in the middle of awards season, most of the contenders for Best Picture at the Oscars are either out or will come out within the next month. In honor of that, I wanted to share my predictions about who I believe will be getting a nomination for Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars. Let’s get started!
Honorable Mentions
- It Was Just an Accident
- No Other Choice
- The Secret Agent
- Song Sung Blue
- Train Dreams
- Weapons
10. Jay Kelly: This is my hot take on this list. I really went back and forth as to what the #10 spots are going to be. There’s a few movies that easily could’ve been on this list. Jay Kelly is one that a lot of people have as honorable mention but don’t have it actually making it. The movie is in limited theaters now and it drops on Netflix at the beginning of December. Clearly, Netflix wants this to be a big Oscar contender; they're dropping it around the same time that they dropped Marriage Story in 2019, another Noah Baumbach film that got a lot of Oscar nominations. The movie premiered at a film festival and the reactions coming out of it are that the movie is good but it’s not great. That right there is why a lot of people are having it in the honorable mentions as a possibility. For me, given this movie is about actors and Hollywood, that seems like a movie that the Oscars are going to enjoy. We’ll talk about this in some of my other Oscar prediction videos, but I think they could get some acting nominations. This is my wild card pick, it might not get in but I’m putting it in here to be different.
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash: This is the only movie on this list (counting the honorable mentions) that we don’t know the reviews. All of the other movies have either been released or premiered at multiple film festivals. Avatar: Fire and Ash is a few weeks away from release. This movie could be terrible and if that’s the case this movie moves off the list immediately. However, both of the previous Avatar films got nominated for best picture. Based on that I would feel stupid not to include this movie on this list. Based on past indicators, this movie is getting in. The reason why it’s not higher is because I’m curious if they’ll nominate all three Avatar movies for best picture. I feel like part of the reason why Avatar: Fire and Ash got nominated was because it was an event and we hadn’t gone to the world in 13 years. In the case of Fire and Ash, it’s only been three years since we’ve been to Pandora. I could see the academy and voters not feeling the magic of the previous two movies because it is the third film and it probably won’t be as much of an event.
8. Bugonia: This is one that I intentionally wasn’t sure as to whether or not the movie will be much of an Oscar contender. I went through several drafts of this list and on several of them, this movie wasn’t on there. But after look over other people’s lists and looking and what nominations it could get, I realized that there’s a good shot that Bugonia gets in. That collaboration between Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone, Poor Things did very well at the Oscars. That movie felt like a more traditional Oscar front runner, Stone took home Best Actress for her performance. I don’t think Bugonia will do quite as well this award season but I think it’ll get a few nominations. People are talking that our two leads, Jesse Plemons and Emma Stone should be in the best actor and best actress race. I think there’s more competition in best actor so I don’t think Plemons gets in, but he’s certainly on the academy voters’ minds. We’ll talk about this later but I think Emma Stone has a better shot of getting in, I think she gives the best performance of the movie. Yorgos’ films seem to do very well at the awards shows. I don’t think Bugonia will win anything this award season but I think it’s a film that’ll show up at multiple different awards throughout the season including the Oscars. At the same time, I see a world where Bugonia doesn’t get in to best picture and misses out at the Oscars completely.
7. Wicked: For Good: There’s been a lot of talk about whether or not Wicked: For Good will get in for Best Picture. The reviews for the film have been a bit polarizing, a lot of people are loving it while others are disappointed by it. The film has a 70% on Rotten Tomatoes, that’s a good score and Best Picture nominees have gotten in with that score. I had this movie a few spots lower because the word of mouth wasn’t as strong. But I the opening weekend box office have come in and they’re fantastic. As of this weekend, Wicked: For Good has a $160 million domestic opening, the biggest domestic opening of 2025 so far. There’s a chance that this movie would have the biggest domestic opening of the year. Maybe Zootopia 2 can beat it, but audiences are flying to theaters to see this movie. Despite the word of mouth not being as strong, audiences are still interested and because of that I think this movie is getting in. But given that this movie is clearly very popular and a lot of people are seeing it which is a good sign. We’ll see how many total nominations it gets come nominations morning, but I think it gets into best picture, which I wouldn’t agree with but hey other people are loving it.
6. Frankenstein: This is another one where my relationship of it being on this list has gone up and down. Going into the year, I thought this was a lock for best picture. It’s popular source material from a world class actor in Guillermo del Toro. The reviews coming out of Venice were still really good but a bit lower then expected so I was a bit unsure. Once it had it’s limited theatrical release and dropped on Netflix a couple weeks back, I realized that this film was a lock for best picture. Critics and audiences are loving this movie and people are already hoping and predicting other nominations that the film will get (which we’ll talk about later). At this point, I feel like it’s hard to bet against a Guillermo del Toro movie getting nominated for Best Picture. A few years back he did his version of Pinocchio, which didn’t get in but it did with animated feature. His film before that, Nightmare Alley got into the best picture. The Shape of Water from 2017 swept that awards seasons winning both picture and director. I don’t think Guillermo gets in for director but I think it does well in best picture, the technical categories, and maybe an acting category.
5. Sentimental Value: This is one that I don’t know much about. I don’t know what the movie is about. All I know is that it’s certainly a Best Picture lock, it’s been getting fantastic reviews, and one of my favorites has already seen this movie three times and wants to see it a fourth. This movie has a 96% on Rotten Tomatoes with 137 reviews counted. Once the film opens wide the score will change a bit but a score in the 90s is very likely for Sentimental Value. Based on everything I’ve heard about it, this seems like a pretty typical best picture nominee. I don’t mean that as a negative, obviously I can’t comment on the film’s quality because I haven’t seen it. But the conversations I’m hearing about it seems like it’s a lock for Best Picture and one of the best movies of the year. I think the film gets a lot of nominations in other high profile places. The only I’m hearing is Stellen Skarsgard is one of the front runners for supporting actor. I think that’ll be a cool nomination, he’s been in the industry a long time and hasn’t gotten this level of awards recognition before. I think it’s a film that’s going to be competitive in several categories but if it’ll take home anything, we’ll just have to wait and see.
4. Sinners: This is an interesting one because I think this film is going to get a number of nominations but this is one of the best picture nominees where I can see it going away with nothing. I do believe there’s a world where Sinners walks away with zero Oscars and that’s one of the things that people are talking about after the ceremony. We’ll talk about that later one as the Oscars ceremony gets closer. As for the idea of Sinners getting a Best Picture nomination, I’m all for it and I love it. Sinners is one of my favorite movies of the year and deserves to be in the Best Picture ten. I love that it’s a horror film, the Oscars have rightfully been recognizing horror in recent years. And it’s a more mainstream film that people have seen it, it’s a films that made almost $400 million which is an impressive number for an original horror movie. But the film’s word of mouth was so strong, critics and audiences are loving it so all around this would be a cool nomination. I think it’s a lock and it’s definitely getting in and I hope it sends a message to Hollywood that we want more original horror movies with a budget. We don’t get a lot of those. I think the critical and financial success of this film as well as Weapons is showing Hollywood that and I think the Oscar love it gets will show them even more.
3. Marty Supreme: Another movie that I’ll be talking about in some more Oscar prediction videos that I’ll be doing very shortly. I don’t know if I’ve ever said this on my blog, but I’m not a big Timothee Chalamet guy. I think he’s one of the more overrated actors working today, but the film where he’s the star of it. Given the subject matter, the cast, and the creative team behind it, I went into 2025 pretty confident this was a best picture front runner. Then the early reviews for the movie dropped and people are loving this movie. The reviews were positive coming out of the film festival that it premiered at and I wasn’t sure what normal critics and audiences would thinking about it. I guess more critics have started to see this movie and people continue to glow and praise this movie. Between Dune: Part II and A Complete Unknown both getting Best Picture nominations last year, he got a Best Actor nomination last year as well I feel like if Timothee Chalamet is the star of it, chances are that it’s getting nominated. There’s a chance that he wins the Oscar for best actor. This is another film that I see getting a lot of nominations, it could get close to 10 nominations which would 100% mean that this a front runner to win Best Picture.
2. Hamnet: This movie has been premiering at film festivals for a while now and is finally releasing wide this weekend. This is one that purely based on the trailer I knew was going to be an Oscar front runner. If you don’t know what this movie is about, it’s about William and Agnes Shakespeare that led to William creating Hamlet. That right there seems like an interesting movie, I didn’t know that the story of the creation of Hamlet was all that interesting. All of the buzz I’m hearing about this movie is that it’s one of the most emotional and gut wrenching movies of 2025. Our two leads, Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal are almost locks in their categories. I guess Mescal is going supporting actor and Buckley is going lead which is a bit strange to me. But maybe once I see the movie it’ll make more sense. This film I have at #1 (you can probably guess what it is by now) I think is going to win Best Picture. Hamnet I think is safely #2 and could very easily win Best Picture. What gives this film maybe a slight advantage is it’s won the best film award at multiple film festivals. Everybody that’s watching this movie is absolutely loving it and voting for it as the best film at the festivals in which it’s playing at. Chloe Zhao won multiple Oscars a few years back for Nomadland. If she wins more Oscars here then maybe we need to start having her in the conversations as one of the top directors working today.
1. One Battle After Another: I did go back and forth between this film and Hamnet for what my #1 is going to be. Ultimately, I went with this film because I feel like I have a better grasp as to what audiences actually think about this movie. This movie has released wide about two months ago, it has a great Rotten Tomatoes score, and has made over $200 million and has officially become Paul Thomas Anderson’s highest grossing film. Given all of the praise it’s been getting, it’s a lock that this film is getting into Best Picture. I also think it’s going to win Best Picture largely because of Paul Thomas Andeson. He’s one of the most celebrated directors of the last 30 years. He’s been nominated for 11 Oscars but has yet to win anything. 2025-2026 feels like it’s PTA’s time to win an Oscar and take home the golden trophy. I feel like the academy and audiences in general are going to be feeling that way about this movie and PTA in geneal. I think this is going to be the most nominated film at the Oscars. I think it’s going to get multiple acting nominations, in which we’re talk about later. All around, One Battle After Another seems like the obvious pick for a movie that’s likely to win Best Picture.
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