Superman’s Domestic Opening Weekend Projections! Will It Make $1 Billion?
We’re less than three weeks away from the release for Superman, one of the most anticipated movies of the year. That means that tickets have gone on sale and we have the opening weekend projections for the film. Are they promising numbers? Should we be concerned? Let’s talk about it!
The Numbers/My Thoughts
The numbers for the film are a bit weird because they’re a bit all over the place but it’s still an interesting thing to talk about. The original number I saw was ranging between $95-$125 million. A couple days ago, the number I saw was $135 million. Within a couple of days the opening weekend projections went up. Right now, I’m going with $135 million as the projected opening for Superman, but the number has been changing. I think the number will continue to change when the reviews come in and we get closer. I figured this movie was going to open very well. There’s been a lot of excitement on the internet for this film. The Snyder Cultists are trying to tear this movie down, but it’s not really working. Based on the general response to the trailers and the conversations being had I figured a $100+ opening was possible, I was thinking maybe it could get to $150 million. Right now, I don’t know if it’s going to reach a $150 million opening weekend, I’m guessing the opening will be about $130 million.
As a point of reference, 12 years ago Man of Steel opened to $113 million. When you adjust that number for inflation it’s obviously much different. If you remove Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice from the picture that opened to $165 million, this will be the biggest opening weekend for a Superman film. Also, The Batman opened to $134 million. If $135 million is the number we’re currently going with, it's a pinch better than The Batman. If it does open to $135 million it’ll be the biggest opening for a DC film since Batman v Superman in 2016. If this movie is going to have a $130+ opening then this could be a big win for DC and proof that despite DC’s reputation not being great over the last few years there’s still a lot of excitement for this film and for Superman.
In general, what do I think about these numbers? I’m happy with these numbers and like I said I’m not too surprised that it’s looking to open big. Man of Steel and Batman v Superman are polarizing films. There’s people that love Zack Snyder’s dark and more serious take on Superman. There’s other people that don’t like how dark Snyder’s Superman was and like the more hopeful awe shucks Superman. You watch the trailers for this film and it’s very much going back to the more hopeful tone of the Christopher Reeves’ Superman era. I think for older audiences it’s bringing out a certain level of nostalgia for them. It’s bringing the audience back to an era of Superman that we haven’t seen in decades. I think the fact that it’s getting back to tried and true Superman is getting a lot of people excited. Beyond that, I knew this film was going to be a hit ever since the first trailer dropped. That movie broke records and got 250 million views in the first 24 hours. It had one of the biggest trailer debuts of all time. I believe it’s the most viewed trailer for DC and WB, it broke records across the board with the numbers that it did. $135 million (possible) opening for Superman is great. This number could easily go up if the reviews are very positive. If the movie is as good as a lot of us are hoping it is, this number might go up.
Will It Make $1 Billion?: This is a question that I’ve been asking myself for a while. Is it possible that Superman makes $1 billion? Technically I guess any film could make $1 billion. I think it’s possible that Superman makes $1 billion. If you go back to the trailer viewership, the other trailers that it’s up there with are Deadpool & Wolverine, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Avengers: Infinity War, Avengers Endgame, The Force Awakens, and The Lion King (2019). All of those films made over $1 billion, some of them made $2 billion. I don’t think this is going to make $2 billion but if you look at that pattern, Superman has a strong chance of making $1 billion. There are two things that can prevent it from making $1 billion. First up, the film might not be good and could get bad reviews. I think no matter what, the movie will have a big opening. If it’s not good, then the second weekend drop could be massive. If that’s the case and people don’t connect with this film then it won’t make $1 billion. Second, two weeks after this film’s release, we’re getting The Fantastic Four: First Steps. Which means Superman is going to have a lot of its screens pulled in its third weekend. It’s going to have direct competition three weeks after it comes out. That could hurt the film’s chances of making $1 billion. But if its first two weeks are strong and the word of mouth surrounding it is very positive I think it makes $1 billion. I think this will be the highest grossing comic book film of 2025. I really want this film to make $1 billion. I want DC to have a win and to have a shared universe that works. I trust James Gunn, I think he’s going to deliver a great film. This is my most anticipated film of the year so I really hope this is a big deal and it delivers.
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