BAFTA Winners Thoughts! What Are the Oscar Implications?

BAFTA Winners Thoughts! What Are the Oscar Implications?

A couple days back were the BAFTAs. What does this mean for the Oscars? Does it clear things up or are things more complicated? Let’s talk about it! 

GENERAL THOUGHTS: In general, there wasn’t much in this award ceremony that was an outright shock. It felt like Critics Choice shocked everybody with Anora winning, the Oscar nominations caused chaos. The BAFTAs kind of went according to plan. Even when I predicted the wrong movie to win a category, I wasn’t surprised with who ended up actually winning. At the same time, I still don’t know where the Oscar race is going. Best Picture is still up in the air, it’s a tie between multiple movies at this point. 

The Technical Categories: Before we get into the more important categories, I wanted to talk about the technical categories. These went according to plan, what ended up winning is what I guessed. The Brutalist won cinematography and score. Wicked won costume and production design. The Substance won make-up and hair. Dune: Part II won sound and visual effects. Anora won the casting. Conclave won best British film and editing. Those movies winning those categories is about what I expected. There weren’t any surprises in these categories, who I thought was going to be who ended up winning. With that out of the way, let’s talk about the more important categories. 

• BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: To nobody’s surprise, CONCLAVE took this award home. This has been the front runner to win all award seasons. The fact that Conclave won this award isn’t too surprising. It’s a British film, that’s not too surprising. This is the front runner at the Oscars, a close second would be Nickel Boys. Nickel Boys won the WGA for adapted screenplay, that’s a big deal. It’s always important to look at the guilds when predicting the Oscars. But I still think Conclave takes the Oscar. 

• BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: This one shocked me, A REAL PAIN won this category. For a long time, people were saying Anora is taking this category home. I still think that’s the case. Anora did win the WGA for best original screenplay, that’s huge. You mix that with winning DGA and PGA, that makes Anora the front runner. But it also lost the Golden Globe and Critics Choice. People for this category were predicting either Anora, The Brutalist, or The Substance. All of them lost, A Real Pain won this award. That’s crazy, I’m happy about that movie. I thought it was a great screenplay. I don’t think this helps its Oscar chances. If it did get in for Best Picture, this is a different conversation. 

• BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Pretty easily, this one went to BAFTA Winners Thoughts! What Are the Oscar Implications? ZOE SALDAÑA for Emilia Pérez. A lot of people are calling Zoe for the Oscar. People are saying start engraving her name in the award now, that’s fair. I totally get why, she’s won everything. She won Golden Globe, Critics Choice (which I thought Ariana Grande would take), and now the BAFTA. We’ll see what happens at SAG, if Zoe wins SAG then she’s a lock for the Oscar. However, if Ariana takes SAG which I think is very likely to happen. Then I think we have a race. Some people were predicting Isabella Rossellini for Conclave to possibly sweep in and take this. That made sense, she’s been around a while and hasn’t gotten this awards love. If Rossellini won, I wouldn’t have been shocked. But, my guess was Saldana was taking this award home. 

• BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: To me, this is the only acting award that is a lock. KIERAN CULKIN is the award season favorite for supporting actors. Some people were doubting Culkin’s chances here. I saw a lot of people predicting Guy Pearce for The Brutalist, rightfully so. Both of them gave fantastic performances. The Brutalist isn’t a British film, but it fits into that category. People still had Culkin as the predicted winner, but people were not doubting the chances of Pearce to win, he didn’t. Like I said, Culkin is the only lock in the acting categories. Culkin is taking SAG, he’s also taking that Oscar. 

• BEST ACTRESS: Ladies and gentlemen, we now have a race. Because MIKEY MADISON won this award. Prior to this, everybody was predicting Demi Moore was going to sweep this award season. People said “watch out for Mikey Madison”. When Mikey lost the Critics Choice, people thought it was over. Then Madison decides to win at BAFTA and that’s a big deal. For the Oscar, Anora is the frontrunner to win Best Picture. since it’s the front runner, you have to put Madison in that conversation. Once again, we’ll see what happens at SAG. I think Mikey has a strong chance to win at SAG and possibly win that Oscar. 

• BEST ACTOR: This is another one that most people think is a lock. ADRIEN BRODY won the BAFTA and has won everywhere else. He’s been sweeping this award ceremony. People were saying that Ralph Fiennes for Conclave could easily come in and win. That was a possibility, I was always leaning towards Brody. Chalamet didn’t really have a shot here. Speaking of Chalamet, I still think he’s in the race. He’s another Ariana Grande situation where I think he’s the front runner for SAG. Clearly, SAG liked A Complete Unknown more than The Brutalist. When they announced Brody’s name at the BAFTA, I was not surprised at all. 

• BEST DIRECTOR: BRADY CORBET won this award for The Brutalist, not surprised. Some people thought that Sean Baker would take this home since he won the DGA. He was my second pick, but I feel this is Corbet’s award to lose. I still view him as the frontrunner to win the Oscar. Even though Anora is the frontrunner to win Best Picture. I feel like people will view what Corbet did with The Brutalist as a greater accomplishment than what Sean Baker did for Anora. 

• BEST PICTURE: This one was both surprising and not surprising. After The Brutalist won the director and actor I thought it would win Best Picture. But CONCLAVE ended up winning the big prize. This isn’t super surprising, it is a British film. Of the movies nominated in this category, Conclave was my favorite. I’m happy that it won this award. I still think it’s #3 at the Oscars to win Best Picture. I know I sound like a broken record, but let’s see what happens at SAG. This movie could win an ensemble at SAG. I don’t know if that’ll happen, but it’s highly possible.