Captain America: Brave New World’s Opening Weekend Projections! Good Numbers? Bad Numbers?
The next MCU movie, Captain America: Brave New World hits theaters in one month. We have the opening weekend projections for the movie. Are the numbers good? Is it looking solid? Let’s get started!
The Article: https://deadline.com/2025/01/captain-america-brave-new-world-box-office-projection-1236254234/#
My Thoughts: I look at these numbers for Captain America: Brave New World. I hear $86-$95 million for its opening weekend and that sounds about right. I didn’t make a prediction as to what I Think it’s going to do. I probably would have guessed around $90 million for its opening weekend. It is opening over Valentine’s Day/Presidents Day Weekend. It will have a four day opening weekend. $86-$95 million is projected to be its three days, its four days is probably going to be $110-$120 million. That’s a solid start to this movie’s opening weekend. Once again, I hear this number for this movie and that sounds about right.
Comparisons:
- With doing posts like this, it’s important to look at other movies to see how it compares. The obvious ones, how does it compare to the other Captain America movies? I don’t think it’s fair to compare this number to Captain America: Civil War. That movie was treated as Avengers 2.5. That movie opened to $170 million. Captain America: Brave New World isn’t designed as an Avengers team up movie. If we were to look at Captain America: The Winter Soldier, 11 years ago it opened to $95 million. This movie is looking to open around what Captain America: The Winter Soldier opened to.
- Another thing, this is the fourth Marvel movie to open over President’s Day weekend. The other movies are Deadpool ($152 million), Black Panther ($242 million), and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania ($120 million). All of these numbers I listed are for the four day weekend. Quantumania did $120 million for the four day weekend, that’s what I’m thinking Brave New World is going to do. At least something around that, probably closer to $110 million. That means, this movie is going to open lower than some of the other Marvel movies released during this weekend. But, two of those movies were these cultural events that were very special. Just to get some comparison as to whether or not this movie is going to open well.
Is This a Good Number?: This is where things get tricky with this opening weekend number. On the one hand, Captain America: Brave New World opening around $90 million is a great number. You look at The Marvels, that movie opened to under $50 million. It’s the worst opening weekend ever for a MCU movie. Brave New World is looking to open about $40 million more, that’s a good sign. One of the reasons why The Marvels bombed was because it was a sequel to too many tv shows. In order to understand that movie, you had to watch WandaVision, Ms. Marvel, and Secret Invasion. Brave New World is a sequel to a tv show. But The Falcon and the Winter Soldier was one of the more popular Disney+ shows compared to Ms. Marvel and Secret Invasion. The brand of Captain America is far more popular than Captain Marvel. It’s not surprising that Brave New World is looking to have a significantly bigger opening than The Marvels. However, the rumored budget for this movie is pretty big. We don’t have the exact number, but it’s looking like this movie’s budget is over $300 million. I don’t know exactly what the movie’s budget is. Other reports are saying that the budget is significantly less than The Marvels, that budget was about $275 million. I don’t know what to expect from this movie’s budget. Reports are saying it is both higher and lower than The Marvels. I don’t know if the movie’s budget is over $300 million. If I had to guess, I think the movie’s budget is between $220-$250 million. Let’s say it’s between those numbers, this movie needs to make about $600 million to be profitable. That’s if the movie’s budget is $220 million. It could be much higher than that. In this case, this movie might need to make $700-$800 million to be profitable. This movie needs to make a lot of money to be profitable. Is a $90 million opening weekend a good enough opening for the movie’s budget? Probably not. Unless this movie gets fantastic reviews and it has great legs, it could make over $700 million. At a $90 million opening, I’m guessing $500-$600 million for this movie. If the budget was reasonable, that’s a good number. But given the evidence with all of the reshoots that this movie is going to be over $200 million, $90 million might not be good enough. I only want this movie to succeed. I only want the best for Anthony Mackie, I want this movie to be good. I’m very curious to see how well this movie does. With all of the reshoots, this movie’s budget is going to be massive. In the case, $90 million probably isn’t a great number.
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